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Date: Mon, 4 Jun 2001 06:58:23 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Daily Trader Summary for Mon, Jun 04, 2001
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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LL=
C?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314=
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  Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy=
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scribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Monday, Jun 04=
, 2001 at 07:56AM EST    Commentary last updated  Monday, Jun 04, 2001 at 0=
9:21AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Cl=
ick here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today:=
 Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun  4, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. =
  Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Cli=
ck on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -1  ERCOT(SP)  91  NC  =
FRCC(SE)  91  NC  MAAC(NE)  75  NC  MAIN(CTR)  65  -3  MAPP(HP)  61  +1  NP=
CC(NE)  67  -1  SERC(SE)  85  NC  SPP(SP)  85  -1  WSCC(NW)  63  -1  WSCC(R=
K)  62  NC  WSCC(SW)  78  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] =
  Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   63 61 64 59 62 82 90 77  Max=
    68 65 70 65 66 87 93 81  Min     58 56 60 54 54 77 87 71  Range  10 10 =
10 10 12 10 6 10  StD-P  2.5 2.7 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.2 2.1  Count  9 9 9 9 9 =
9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion: Short range models indicate the jet stream wil=
l remain unusually amplified this week. The temperature contrast may not be=
 as large as the last two weeks, but rainfall and storminess look to be mor=
e widespread. More important, some of the best rainfall potential is locate=
d over the Gulf Coast and SE states. Most other areas East of the Rockies w=
ill see above normal rainfall prospects as well as moisture flows out of th=
e Gulf into a warm front set up over the Mississippi Valley. This will lift=
 into the Northeast midweek allowing a temporary surge of warm air to flow =
North. As mentioned last week, this surge may bring temperatures back to ne=
ar normal for a day or two. Additional energy later in the week from Canada=
 will allow our Eastern trough to amplify again sending a cold front and mo=
re moderate cooling deep into dixie. Energy needs East of the Ro! ckies sti=
ll look below normal this week although AC usage will be increasing especia=
lly in the Southern states as the more humid air keeps night time temperatu=
es up.  In the West, the excessive heat from last week has broken in many a=
reas. There may be another round though later in the week. The same pattern=
 that amplfies a trough in the East will also amplify the ridge in the West=
. It appears to be set up a little farther East into the Intermountain regi=
on as opposed to last weeks position right along the coast. Precipitation p=
otential as is typically the case this time of year is rather limited. I am=
 sure there will be some lighter showers in the NW, but hardly enough to he=
lp the hydro situation. The East slopes of the Rockies could see some moder=
ate rains as a favorable upslope situation develops by midweek when a surfa=
ce high builds in the Plains.   Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5,=
 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]=
   ECAR(CTR)  72  -1  ERCOT(SP)  90  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  77  NC=
  MAIN(CTR)  70  NC  MAPP(HP)  63  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  -1  SERC(SE)  87  NC  =
SPP(SP)  80  -2  WSCC(NW)  67  -2  WSCC(RK)  70  +2  WSCC(SW)  80  NC      =
Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP =
 SW   Mean   65 65 65 61 69 82 88 79  Max    72 69 74 67 72 87 91 82  Min  =
   62 61 60 54 62 78 85 73  Range  11 8 14 13 10 9 5 9  StD-P  2.6 2.5 4.2 =
3.9 2.2 3.3 1.7 2.0  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for W=
ed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)=
    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  71  -3  ERCOT(SP)  91  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(=
NE)  73  -5  MAIN(CTR)  69  -1  MAPP(HP)  69  +2  NPCC(NE)  70  -2  SERC(SE=
)  84  NC  SPP(SP)  81  -1  WSCC(NW)  71  +1  WSCC(RK)  77  +1  WSCC(SW)  8=
6  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  =
RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   66 71 64 66 78 80 86 84  Max    69 74 71 71 79 85 8=
9 86  Min     63 67 59 61 76 76 83 83  Range  7 6 11 10 3 9 6 3  StD-P  2.1=
 2.3 3.9 3.1 1.3 3.1 2.0 1.1  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forec=
ast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility M=
atrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to=
 enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  70  NC  ERCOT(SP)  90  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  =
-1  MAAC(NE)  70  -7  MAIN(CTR)  72  +2  MAPP(HP)  72  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  +2=
  SERC(SE)  82  -4  SPP(SP)  83  +1  WSCC(NW)  78  +5  WSCC(RK)  81  NC  WS=
CC(SW)  88  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP =
 NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   67 75 61 73 80 77 84 85  Max    71 78 69 7=
8 83 82 88 88  Min     63 71 57 69 78 75 82 82  Range  9 7 11 8 5 8 7 6  St=
D-P  2.6 2.5 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summa=
ry Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Vola=
tility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on =
image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  +3  ERCOT(SP)  90  +2  FRCC(S=
E)  87  -1  MAAC(NE)  72  NC  MAIN(CTR)  74  +1  MAPP(HP)  76  +1  NPCC(NE)=
  69  +3  SERC(SE)  81  NC  SPP(SP)  83  -1  WSCC(NW)  78  +9  WSCC(RK)  83=
  +2  WSCC(SW)  85  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg =
 CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   66 74 61 68 76 75 81 79  Max    74=
 82 70 78 83 82 89 85  Min     53 57 55 53 54 67 67 61  Range  21 25 15 25 =
29 15 22 24  StD-P  5.4 5.6 4.2 6.4 7.3 3.6 4.7 5.8  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6=
    Day 6-10 discussion:  There should be some change to the pattern especi=
ally late in the period. Most of the long range models indicate the blockin=
g in Canada will ease allowing for a Northward migration of the jet stream.=
 In addition, there appear to be some jet stream alignment changes going on=
 in the Pacific that should eventually translate downstream. If these occur=
, we should see a strong trough in the NW, a weaker trough in the NE and an=
 expanding flat ridge in the middle of the country by mid-June. Sensible we=
ather changes would include substantial cooling of the West and moderate wa=
rming of the North and East. The various long term models seem to be recogn=
izing the change, but vary on its depth. The European is the most aggressiv=
e blasting summer from the Plains into the NE by Day 10. The American MRF m=
ay actually keep the East a little too cool as it has a ! more amplified tr=
ough in the NE. This seems to leave me in the Canadian camp today. I expect=
 a more normal summer pattern to finally emerge by the middle of next week.=
 But, keep in mind, I am saying NORMAL, not excessive heat. The last 3-4 we=
eks have seen a fairly widespread moderate to heavy rainfall occur over mos=
t of the East. These moist topsoils should keep temperatures from getting o=
ut of hand for awhile.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syn=
crasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE=
][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR=
)  74  +2  ERCOT(SP)  90  +1  FRCC(SE)  87  NC  MAAC(NE)  74  +3  MAIN(CTR)=
  76  +1  MAPP(HP)  77  +2  NPCC(NE)  70  +3  SERC(SE)  81  NC  SPP(SP)  84=
  NC  WSCC(NW)  71  +6  WSCC(RK)  83  +4  WSCC(SW)  82  +2      Range Stand=
ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean =
  72 81 64 65 81 77 85 80  Max    77 86 71 71 83 82 89 82  Min     67 76 58=
 62 79 73 84 79  Range  10 10 13 9 4 9 5 4  StD-P  3.8 3.5 4.1 2.3 1.7 3.0 =
1.7 1.5  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, =
2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAG=
E]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE] =
  ECAR(CTR)  74  -2  ERCOT(SP)  91  +1  FRCC(SE)  86  -1  MAAC(NE)  75  -1 =
 MAIN(CTR)  77  NC  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  71  NC  SERC(SE)  83  NC  S=
PP(SP)  86  NC  WSCC(NW)  67  +1  WSCC(RK)  80  +5  WSCC(SW)  80  +1      R=
ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  =
SW   Mean   74 81 66 60 81 78 87 78  Max    79 86 72 67 83 83 90 81  Min   =
  68 78 61 57 79 74 85 75  Range  11 8 11 10 4 9 5 5  StD-P  4.5 3.4 3.6 2.=
8 1.4 3.2 1.2 2.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Mon=
, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)  =
  [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +4  ERCOT(SP)  92  +8  FRCC(SE)  88  +12  MAAC(N=
E)  75  +10  MAIN(CTR)  75  +1  MAPP(HP)  77  +3  NPCC(NE)  71  +8  SERC(SE=
)  84  +11  SPP(SP)  85  +1  WSCC(NW)  68  +21  WSCC(RK)  77  +16  WSCC(SW)=
  79  +7      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  N=
W  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 79 67 57 79 80 88 75  Max    83 83 72 68 80 8=
4 91 79  Min     68 77 61 51 76 76 85 71  Range  14 6 11 16 4 9 6 9  StD-P =
 5.6 1.8 4.3 4.7 0.9 3.0 2.0 3.4  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary F=
orecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatili=
ty Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on imag=
e to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  61  -13  ERCOT(SP)  88  +4  FRCC(SE) =
 78  +2  MAAC(NE)  63  -8  MAIN(CTR)  67  -8  MAPP(HP)  73  +3  NPCC(NE)  5=
5  -14  SERC(SE)  75  +1  SPP(SP)  85  +1  WSCC(NW)  51  -2  WSCC(RK)  65  =
+8  WSCC(SW)  72  -5      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  C=
T  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 74 63 56 73 79 87 76  Max    81 8=
1 69 64 79 83 88 80  Min     67 69 57 51 71 76 85 73  Range  14 12 12 13 9 =
8 3 7  StD-P  7.0 4.7 5.7 4.8 2.9 2.9 1.4 3.0  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day=
 10: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Te=
mp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  =
(Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  60  -13  ERCOT(SP)  87 =
 +3  FRCC(SE)  78  +3  MAAC(NE)  58  -15  MAIN(CTR)  68  -5  MAPP(HP)  67  =
-2  NPCC(NE)  52  -21  SERC(SE)  76  NC  SPP(SP)  84  +5  WSCC(NW)  59  -3 =
 WSCC(RK)  62  -5  WSCC(SW)  77  -3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [=
IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   67 62 57 52 59 75 81 =
67  Max    69 64 63 59 67 77 88 77  Min     66 58 53 44 48 72 73 57  Range =
 4 7 10 15 18 4 15 21  StD-P  1.3 2.3 4.2 7.2 7.7 1.9 7.2 9.9  Count  4 4 4=
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